New Seat Details - Rutland and Melton

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Rutland and Melton been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	36,325	63.7%
LAB	13,133	23.0%
LIB	4,100	7.2%
UKIP	1,726	3.0%
Green	1,664	2.9%
OTH	33	0.1%
CON Majority	23,192	40.7%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Rutland and Melton: Map

List of old seats forming part of Rutland and Melton

Old seat: Charnwood

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Charnwood, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Charnwood				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Blaby	Ellis	4,030	Leicestershire South	1,862	832	78	49	47	0	0	15	2,883
Blaby	Fairestone	3,713	Leicestershire South	1,796	768	80	49	43	0	0	11	2,747
Blaby	Forest	5,324	Leicestershire South	2,948	958	101	70	53	0	0	12	4,142
Blaby	Muxloe	3,362	Leicestershire South	1,824	498	45	38	33	0	0	9	2,447
Charnwood	Anstey	5,213	Charnwood	1,946	1,177	272	193	172	0	0	27	3,787
Charnwood	Birstall Wanlip	5,250	Charnwood	1,811	1,245	268	58	52	0	0	9	3,443
Charnwood	Birstall Watermead	5,108	Charnwood	2,243	1,366	111	72	58	0	0	14	3,864
Charnwood	East Goscote	2,287	Rutland and Melton	1,051	494	46	34	26	0	0	28	1,679
Charnwood	Forest Bradgate	2,484	Charnwood	1,453	440	29	27	31	0	0	5	1,985
Charnwood	Mountsorrel	5,247	Charnwood	2,270	1,243	88	196	165	0	0	28	3,990
Charnwood	Queniborough	2,539	Rutland and Melton	1,232	426	37	30	25	0	0	5	1,755
Charnwood	Rothley and Thurcaston	5,292	Charnwood	2,498	853	71	160	53	0	0	17	3,652
Charnwood	Syston East	5,223	Charnwood	2,000	1,259	250	68	56	0	0	11	3,644
Charnwood	Syston West	4,985	Charnwood	2,255	1,363	81	63	54	0	0	11	3,827
Charnwood	Thurmaston	7,414	Charnwood	2,749	2,503	135	106	77	0	0	60	5,630
Charnwood	Wreake Villages	2,415	Charnwood	1,290	373	24	25	21	0	0	4	1,737
Hinckley and Bosworth	Groby	5,440	Charnwood	2,093	1,179	336	232	69	0	0	55	3,964
	Total	75,326		33,321	16,977	2,052	1,470	1,035	0	0	321	55,176

The full details of these calculations are given on the Charnwood seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Rutland and Melton

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Rutland and Melton, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Rutland and Melton				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Harborough	Billesdon	1,403	Rutland and Melton	825	144	41	17	26	0	0	0	1,053
Harborough	Nevill	1,703	Rutland and Melton	917	195	153	22	34	0	0	0	1,321
Harborough	Thurnby and Houghton	5,168	Harborough, Oadby and Wigston	2,128	856	691	207	140	0	0	0	4,022
Harborough	Tilton	1,546	Rutland and Melton	790	182	141	19	31	0	0	0	1,163
Melton	Asfordby	2,536	Rutland and Melton	1,158	456	109	91	58	0	0	0	1,872
Melton	Bottesford	2,833	Rutland and Melton	1,495	345	116	39	56	0	0	0	2,051
Melton	Croxton Kerrial	1,455	Rutland and Melton	772	159	38	17	26	0	0	0	1,012
Melton	Frisby-on-the-Wreake	1,409	Rutland and Melton	760	153	49	17	27	0	0	0	1,006
Melton	Gaddesby	1,336	Rutland and Melton	751	149	39	17	24	0	0	0	980
Melton	Long Clawson and Stathern	3,153	Rutland and Melton	1,755	405	131	43	67	0	0	0	2,401
Melton	Melton Craven	2,595	Rutland and Melton	1,081	637	121	108	64	0	0	0	2,011
Melton	Melton Dorian	3,767	Rutland and Melton	1,604	1,126	179	73	85	0	0	0	3,067
Melton	Melton Egerton	2,608	Rutland and Melton	992	1,015	151	52	69	0	0	0	2,279
Melton	Melton Newport	3,656	Rutland and Melton	1,712	768	182	139	94	0	0	0	2,895
Melton	Melton Sysonby	3,816	Rutland and Melton	1,830	871	201	165	104	0	0	0	3,171
Melton	Melton Warwick	2,383	Rutland and Melton	1,107	645	122	112	68	0	0	0	2,054
Melton	Old Dalby	1,482	Rutland and Melton	835	192	51	21	28	0	0	0	1,127
Melton	Somerby	1,374	Rutland and Melton	766	145	44	17	26	0	0	0	998
Melton	Waltham-on-the-Wolds	1,269	Rutland and Melton	628	186	53	19	28	0	0	0	914
Melton	Wymondham	1,148	Rutland and Melton	663	132	32	13	23	0	0	0	863
Rutland	Braunston and Belton	1,043	Rutland and Melton	567	104	33	13	20	0	0	0	737
Rutland	Cottesmore	2,109	Rutland and Melton	1,071	263	66	65	41	0	0	0	1,506
Rutland	Exton	1,133	Rutland and Melton	500	142	98	35	26	0	0	0	801
Rutland	Greetham	983	Rutland and Melton	879	171	78	21	34	0	0	0	1,183
Rutland	Ketton	2,165	Rutland and Melton	1,057	256	180	64	48	0	0	0	1,605
Rutland	Langham	1,092	Rutland and Melton	481	133	120	14	24	0	0	0	772
Rutland	Lyddington	1,092	Rutland and Melton	561	102	33	12	19	0	0	0	727
Rutland	Martinsthorpe	887	Rutland and Melton	493	93	29	12	18	0	0	0	645
Rutland	Normanton	2,341	Rutland and Melton	1,175	339	289	92	61	0	0	0	1,956
Rutland	Oakham North East	1,916	Rutland and Melton	1,093	424	133	41	67	0	0	0	1,758
Rutland	Oakham North West	2,894	Rutland and Melton	946	462	334	44	60	0	0	0	1,846
Rutland	Oakham South East	1,936	Rutland and Melton	900	296	186	31	46	0	0	0	1,459
Rutland	Oakham South West	1,748	Rutland and Melton	820	295	95	30	43	0	0	0	1,283
Rutland	Ryhall and Casterton	2,193	Rutland and Melton	1,140	287	98	33	50	0	0	0	1,608
Rutland	Uppingham	2,829	Rutland and Melton	1,490	808	165	140	97	0	0	0	2,700
Rutland	Whissendine	994	Rutland and Melton	428	133	127	14	21	0	0	0	723
	Total	73,995		36,170	13,069	4,708	1,869	1,753	0	0	0	57,569

The full details of these calculations are given on the Rutland and Melton seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Rutland and Melton

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Rutland and Melton
Charnwood	East Goscote	2,376	Charnwood	1,051	494	46	34	26	0	0	28	1,679
Charnwood	Queniborough	2,480	Charnwood	1,232	426	37	30	25	0	0	5	1,755
Harborough	Billesdon	1,436	Rutland and Melton	825	144	41	17	26	0	0	0	1,053
Harborough	Nevill	1,799	Rutland and Melton	917	195	153	22	34	0	0	0	1,321
Harborough	Tilton	1,585	Rutland and Melton	790	182	141	19	31	0	0	0	1,163
Melton	Asfordby	2,552	Rutland and Melton	1,158	456	109	91	58	0	0	0	1,872
Melton	Bottesford	2,795	Rutland and Melton	1,495	345	116	39	56	0	0	0	2,051
Melton	Croxton Kerrial	1,378	Rutland and Melton	772	159	38	17	26	0	0	0	1,012
Melton	Frisby-on-the-Wreake	1,373	Rutland and Melton	760	153	49	17	27	0	0	0	1,006
Melton	Gaddesby	1,336	Rutland and Melton	751	149	39	17	24	0	0	0	980
Melton	Long Clawson and Stathern	3,273	Rutland and Melton	1,755	405	131	43	67	0	0	0	2,401
Melton	Melton Craven	2,742	Rutland and Melton	1,081	637	121	108	64	0	0	0	2,011
Melton	Melton Dorian	4,180	Rutland and Melton	1,604	1,126	179	73	85	0	0	0	3,067
Melton	Melton Egerton	3,107	Rutland and Melton	992	1,015	151	52	69	0	0	0	2,279
Melton	Melton Newport	3,947	Rutland and Melton	1,712	768	182	139	94	0	0	0	2,895
Melton	Melton Sysonby	4,321	Rutland and Melton	1,830	871	201	165	104	0	0	0	3,171
Melton	Melton Warwick	2,801	Rutland and Melton	1,107	645	122	112	68	0	0	0	2,054
Melton	Old Dalby	1,535	Rutland and Melton	835	192	51	21	28	0	0	0	1,127
Melton	Somerby	1,361	Rutland and Melton	766	145	44	17	26	0	0	0	998
Melton	Waltham-on-the-Wolds	1,247	Rutland and Melton	628	186	53	19	28	0	0	0	914
Melton	Wymondham	1,175	Rutland and Melton	663	132	32	13	23	0	0	0	863
Rutland	Braunston and Belton	1,004	Rutland and Melton	567	104	33	13	20	0	0	0	737
Rutland	Cottesmore	2,053	Rutland and Melton	1,071	263	66	65	41	0	0	0	1,506
Rutland	Exton	1,091	Rutland and Melton	500	142	98	35	26	0	0	0	801
Rutland	Greetham	1,613	Rutland and Melton	879	171	78	21	34	0	0	0	1,183
Rutland	Ketton	2,188	Rutland and Melton	1,057	256	180	64	48	0	0	0	1,605
Rutland	Langham	1,053	Rutland and Melton	481	133	120	14	24	0	0	0	772
Rutland	Lyddington	991	Rutland and Melton	561	102	33	12	19	0	0	0	727
Rutland	Martinsthorpe	876	Rutland and Melton	493	93	29	12	18	0	0	0	645
Rutland	Normanton	2,666	Rutland and Melton	1,175	339	289	92	61	0	0	0	1,956
Rutland	Oakham North East	2,396	Rutland and Melton	1,093	424	133	41	67	0	0	0	1,758
Rutland	Oakham North West	2,517	Rutland and Melton	946	462	334	44	60	0	0	0	1,846
Rutland	Oakham South East	1,989	Rutland and Melton	900	296	186	31	46	0	0	0	1,459
Rutland	Oakham South West	1,746	Rutland and Melton	820	295	95	30	43	0	0	0	1,283
Rutland	Ryhall and Casterton	2,189	Rutland and Melton	1,140	287	98	33	50	0	0	0	1,608
Rutland	Uppingham	3,680	Rutland and Melton	1,490	808	165	140	97	0	0	0	2,700
Rutland	Whissendine	987	Rutland and Melton	428	133	127	14	21	0	0	0	723
	Total	77,838		36,325	13,133	4,100	1,726	1,664	0	0	33	56,981

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Rutland and Melton. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Alan Duncan (CON)
County/Area:	Leicestershire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	77,838
Turnout:	73.2%

Rutland and Melton: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Rutland and Melton: Overview

Introduction